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The ludic fallacy, identified by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book ''The Black Swan'', is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations." Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice."〔Taleb, Nassim (2007). ''The Black Swan''. New York: Random House. p. 309. ISBN 1-4000-6351-5.〕 The adjective ''ludic'' originates from the Latin noun ''ludus'', meaning "play, game, sport, pastime."〔Simpson, D.P. (1987). ''Cassell's Latin and English Dictionary''. New York: Hungry Minds. p. 134.〕 ==Description== The alleged fallacy is a central argument in the book and a rebuttal of the predictive mathematical models used to predict the future – as well as an attack on the idea of applying naïve and simplified statistical models in complex domains. According to Taleb, statistics is applicable only in some domains, for instance casinos in which the odds are visible and defined. Taleb's argument centers on the idea that predictive models are based on platonified forms, gravitating towards mathematical purity and failing to take various aspects into account: * It is impossible to be in possession of the entirety of available information * Small unknown variations in the data could have a huge impact. Taleb differentiates his idea from that of mathematical notions in chaos theory, e.g. the butterfly effect * Theories/models based on empirical data are claimed to be flawed as they may not be able predict events which are previously unobserved, but have tremendous impact, e.g., the 9/11 terrorist attacks or the invention of the automobile, a.k.a black swan theory 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Ludic fallacy」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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